With the House vote on the American Health Care Act (AHCA) nearly upon us, a great deal of attention has been rightly given to the razor-thin margins President Trump and Republican leadership has in pushing this bill through Congress. As the New York Times explained this week, the bill needs 216 Republican votes in the House to pass (no Democrats support the AHCA).
According to the NYT, As of Thursday, March 23, there are 149 likely Republican supporters of the bill, while 44 are undecided, 15 have concerns or lean no, and 29 are likely no-votes. This bill cannot pass with 29 “no” votes.
Being so close to the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, combined with the fact that House incumbents’ next election is always looming, it can be useful to examine whip counts in relation to Trump’s 2016 electoral performance in each Congressional district.